last update : March 14 4:22 zulu time


 
Hurricanes Talk

 

Links



Storms Summary (dead link before march) Sea Explaining Video






Forecast

PacificAtlantic

Description for Pacific

Nothing going on

Description for Atlantic

Nothing going on

Hurricane Season : May 15 - November 30Hurricane Season : June 1 - November 30
<=Hurricane>=Tropical storm !=Tropical Depression /=Post A=desturbance x=Remnants
Right click and click"open image in new tab".


Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale(SSHWS)
Wind(mph)Category
<38Tropical Depression
39-73Tropical Storm
74-95Hurricane Category 1
96-110Hurricane Category 2
111-129Hurricane Category 3 * Magor Hurricane
130-156Hurricane Category 4 * Magor Hurricane
157<Hurricane Category 5 * Magor Hurricane

Patterns for the forecast (pre season forecast)


El Nino

wind anomalies


This image shows lighter winds over the equatorial pacific ocean, meaning that it will not cool the waters, it will warm them. When this happens, it is called El ~ Nino. This fuels hurricane activity for the Eastern Pacific and causes wind shear to the north Atlanntic. But El nino can be ended if the winds are stronger(less zonal wind anomalies), then the water cools. That is called La~Nina, and it is not happening soon for 3 reasons, the winds are not strong, and 2, the SOI, and three, the subsurface sea surface tempareture anomalies. (click the image above)

SOI (southern Oscilation Index)

the page by the Australian Government about this


The SOI has crashed down and is now in the negative sone for the month average and the daily (that last one depends on te time you click on it) that means trade winds in Australia and not in the el~nino zone. So el nino thrives. That is kind of how you predict the zonal wind anomalies. after that the subsurface equaatorial pacific sea temperature anomalies will start to rise, this fueling El~Nino, and then it is easy to predict.

Subsurface


This actually determines if the el~nino is going to happen or not (sometimes). If there is warm water in the west, and all the other factors apply, then el nino is probably sure to happen. Like here, where the waters are 4° celcius above average. (does not sound warm but really is, go look at the map). However, that cold plume in the east is actually increasing, making a likely chance that the atlantic will be busy.


Basins


Pacific



The last hurricane season was the most active Pacific Hurricane Season in terms of Accumalated Cyclone Energy(ACE). We got the el nono covered, we need the SST's of the East Pacific. On the image above, you see a cold PDO. That limits the hurricanes from going north. However, with the current pattern, it will eventuallly warm up. It cooled down due to storminess. So that means that with the current el nino, during the spring, it moves it's moisture more southwards because the ridge is more. However, those storms move more twards tropical cyclones. Taking note that the pacific in the tropics is already warm, this is again going to be a busy season. There would be another image, but the weather is too chaotic at the time for that.

Atlantic


 The Atlantic has a lot more features than the pacific, mainly due to the different terrains in the continents around it. One of them is the saharan desert of africa.It pumps dist into the atlantic which blocks sumshine, thus the hurricanes can's form.Those whites will cool the atlantic to such a level, half of the main development region will sot have tropical cyclones. The other half is free for dangerous cyclones. You also see that huge high in the north atlantic on the first image. That is going to block tropical formations in the north(not completely, it is weak). This makes perfect time for a busy atlantic. The temperatures of the water even say that! And, you see the dust in the carribian. It will take till july, but it will go away. It will at least be neutral, if not above average.

Summary

Current warning(s) : there are no warnigs abalable now

Enso Warning System : El Nino watch

ACE for Pacific : 0
ACE for atlantic : 0

Forecast storms for Pacific :
Forecast hurricanes for Pacific :
Forecast magor hurricanes for Pacific :
Forecast Pacific ACE :
Forecast storms for Atlantic :
Forecast hurricanes for Atlantic :
Forecast magor hurricanes for Atlantic :
Forecast Atlantic ACE :


EPAC/CPAC watchout =
ATL Watchout = 10st

Animations

Florence Rosa Michael